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How American military intervention in Nigeria may likely play out (II)

Published

4 months ago

December 2, 2025

Penultimate week, the American Congress by a bi-partisan vote of 285 in a joint session of the House and Senate approved a resolution granting President Donald Trump to initiate a range of actions from sanctions, visa denials against selected Nigerian officials and above all targeted military action against terrorist groups operating in Nigeria.

Titled ‘’Nigeria Religious Freedom Protection and Counter-Terrorism Act of 2025’’, this measure effectively puts Nigeria in the crosshairs of potential US military action in the not distant future.

US Intelligence and military analysts believe that although President Trump now has the full authorisation of the US Congress to intervene militarily in Nigeria as he had sought, it is not envisaged that a full-blown military campaign will follow. What intelligence and military analysts believe will happen are targeted drone strikes at terrorists camps and their infrastructure. ‘’The US is not at war with the Nigerian government and people’’ Steve McDale a Washington D.C based analyst told me. He further stated that ‘’the US government is going after the terrorists who have for quite some time now wreaked havoc on innocent Nigerian people having watched with dismay the carnage and humanitarian crises the terrorists have inflicted on Nigeria resulting in hundreds of thousands of lives lost. The world cannot stand by and continue to watch on without doing something. Nigeria itself led a similar initiative to save Liberia and Sierra Leone when those countries faced existential challenges’’.

In anticipation of the Congressional approval, as is standard US military practice, advance teams of operatives may have been inserted into Nigeria to ‘’case the joint’’ in military parlance. The brief for these teams is to reconnoiter and gather enough intelligence on the targeted areas to enable precision drone strikes.

From what is known about American military operations of this nature, the targeted drone strikes on terrorist camps in Nigeria will likely be coordinated by satellite guidance as well ground technical intelligence from agents already infiltrated into the country. In addition to helping to guide home the strikes, they will also be expected to provide situational assessment on the impact of the strikes on both the terrorists and the people of the targeted areas. This will help determine what subsequent steps to be taken by the US government.

What the US government really intends to achieve with the military intervention

As the Act says, the US bombing strike being put together by American military planners is couched as a humanitarian action to allow for religious freedom now allegedly being denied adherents of the Christian faith by Islamist jihadists in Nigeria. But as has done in Ukraine and the Middle East we can expect a transactional president Trump to use the threat of American military intervention to extract from the Tinubu government some strategic and economic concessions. President Trump is likely to throw in the possibility of ‘’regime change’’ to force the Tinubu administration to the negotiating table wherein the Americans would up the ante and seek economic concessions on mineral extraction rights among others. The Americans would also likely seek to establish a military base in Nigeria in effect, to counter the growing presence of its strategic rival, China in the country. The Americans envisage that in the coming years, Africa is poised to be the new frontier of strategic competition with the Chinese, and

Can President Trump successfully carry out his military threat?

There is no question that the Americans have the capacity to carry out their military threats on Nigeria. But they would have to consider the daunting tactical challenges that will come with the intervention.

First of all, such an action will go against international law. An approval in the American Congress does not amount to approval by the international community which must be secured through global consensus as a sine qua non for such an action contemplated by the Americans.

Secondly, President Trump has not shown proof to the American public that what is happening in Nigeria constitutes a direct threat to American interests or to any of its allies. Although the American Congress may have approved the intervention, that does not mean that the American people will agree with the course of action being contemplated on Nigeria. If President Trump goes ahead and initiates military action on Nigeria, before long there will likely be negative reactions in America.

Thirdly, and very important too, as there is no evidence whatsoever that the American government had secured or will be acting with the willing collaboration of the Nigerian government on the intended military intervention, it will rightly be construed as an illegal and unjust declaration of war against a sovereign nation. We may have a government that has demonstrated unbelievable incompetence in living up to its constitutional responsibilities, but the if the Americans cannot show proof of exhaustively engaging the Nigerian government constructively in resolving this issue before embarking on what will for all practical purposes be a brazen unilateral action, then the matter will likely escalate across the globe.

Without squaring the circle on these factors, the Americans would be figuratively walking through a blind alley even with their massive military capabilities and advantages in Nigeria. This would negatively affect the tactical operations of the military intervention and the strategic calculations thereby limiting whatever successes they hope to achieve.

Questions like how would the drone strikes pin point and differentiate where the terrorists are camped and their supply chains as against dwellings of innocent folks? Can the American strikes avoid collateral damage on the Christian population which the action is supposed to protect? Can the Americans cope with the possible widespread panic and pandemonium that will follow the strikes? Have the Americans for that matter factored in that the strikes may likely trigger violence all over the country and even beyond in West Africa and Africa? Has President Trump and his Gung-Ho team of belligerents thought about the possibility of a massive push-back in America and the world which will consider his action as a dangerous violation of the International order? Suppose China considers this as cue to intervene militarily in Taiwan too as it has long threatened to do?

The Americans may dismiss these relevant questions, but let us not forget that both the first and second world wars occurred when Germany decided to tip the balance of European geo-politics by invading Belgium and Poland respectively. The Iraqi war too was triggered by the illegal invasion of Kuwait by Iraq which ironically was led by the Americans. Both the Germans and Iraqis at the time never thought such precipitate actions would eventually bring total ruin and disaster to their countries.

Before they reap the unintended consequences of their contemplated military interventions in Nigeria, President Trump would do well to change tactics. In this wise I recommend that they lean heavily on the Tinubu government and diplomatically compel them to agree to a collaborative effort in tackling the current existential security issues facing the country. If the price Nigerian people have to pay is some economic concessions to the Americans in the bargain, so be it. But the long suffering Nigerian people must be spared a tragedy of monumental proportions on top of the trauma of insecurity they are now facing, which is hardly of their own making but of the total abdication of responsibility by their leaders. (Concluded)

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Sanusi will lead Sallah Durbar in Kano – Gov’t

Published

4 days ago

March 18, 2026

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The Kano State Government has announced that the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, will lead this year’s Eid-el-Fitr Durbar, even as it unveiled strict guidelines to prevent a breakdown of law and order during the celebrations.....TAP TO CONTINUE READING

The government said the decision, approved by Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, followed credible intelligence reports indicating attempts by some individuals to create unrest during the Sallah period.

In a statement issued on Wednesday by the Commissioner for Information and Internal Affairs, Ibrahim Abdullahi Waiya, the government said it remained committed to preserving Kano’s cultural heritage but would prioritise peace and security.

According to the statement, Hawan Idi (Eid Durbar) will be conducted by Emir Sanusi from the Kofar Mata Eid Ground through designated routes to Gidan Shettima, terminating at Kofar Fatalwa of the emir’s palace.

It added that Hawan Nasarawa would be held in a modified form without horseback displays, while Hawan Daushe, Hawan Fanisau and Hawan Dorayi have been suspended for the time being in the interest of public safety.

The government said all security agencies had been directed to intensify surveillance and ensure strict compliance with the directives before, during and after the festive period.

It urged residents to remain calm, law-abiding and cooperative with security agencies, while cautioning against the spread of unverified information.

The government further assured the public of its commitment to a peaceful and hitch-free Sallah celebration, wishing Muslims in the state a joyous Eid-el-Fitr.

The Durbar, a centuries-old cultural procession, has been thrown into uncertainty following conflicting statements from government officials on whether it will hold this year, given the unresolved legal battle between Sanusi II and Aminu Ado Bayero.

While Governor Yusuf reinstated Sanusi II in 2024, Bayero continues to contest his dethronement in court, leaving the emirship in dispute.

The government recently hinted that the stool controversy would soon be resolved.

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2027: Igboho dismisses Sowore’s comment on ‘transactional politics’

Published

4 days ago

March 18, 2026

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Yoruba nation agitator, Sunday Adeyemo, popularly known as Sunday Igboho, has dismissed comments by human rights activist and former presidential candidate, Omoyele Sowore, over what he described as transactional politics and activism.....TAP TO CONTINUE READING

PUNCH Online reports that Sowore’s comment followed a viral video in which the activist criticised what he described as “transactional politics” among some regional agitators and influencers, accusing them of aligning with political actors for personal or material benefit.

In the video, Sowore appeared to reference Igboho, suggesting that his recent political positions, including support for President Bola Tinubu’s potential re-election bid, reflected what he termed “amala politics” — a colloquial expression often used to imply opportunistic or interest-driven engagement rather than principled activism.

Igboho, in a statement issued by his media aide, Olayomi Koiki, in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, on Tuesday, criticised Sowore for allegedly describing his activism as “amala politics” in a recent viral video circulating on social media.

He described the comment as an inconsequential rant that should be ignored by the public.

Igboho argued that his agitation for improved security in the South-West and his support for the second-term bid of President Bola Tinubu in 2027 were constitutional rights aimed at promoting the collective interests of the Yoruba people and the development of Nigeria.

He said, “We strongly reject the characterisation of Igboho’s activism as transactional. Such a myopic position misrepresents the intent and focus of our agitation on effective grassroots security in the South-West and Nigeria as a whole.

“How many protests did Sowore organise to push for my freedom? Sowore’s claim of fighting for the masses contradicts his alleged daily lodging expenses of N450,000 at a popular Lagos hotel.

“I cannot be compelled to endorse political figures such as Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar, or even align with Sowore’s political platform. I have the right to make independent political decisions based on the security and collective interests of the Yoruba people.”

He added that Igboho’s advocacy prioritises addressing insecurity across Yorubaland, including killings of farmers, kidnappings along highways and attacks on traditional rulers and royal institutions.

Koiki, however, clarified that these concerns form the basis of Igboho’s movement rather than any ambition for political office or revolutionary leadership.

The statement added, “While Sowore has consistently promoted nationwide revolution as a pathway to leadership, Igboho’s approach is rooted in protecting lives, land and property within Yoruba territory. This agitation is a response to real and ongoing threats faced by communities in the region.

“Latest security incidents in northern Nigeria, including reported explosions in Maiduguri on March 16, 2026, also raise questions about the broader effectiveness of long-term revolutionary advocacy.

“We challenge Sowore to assess the situation in his home state of Ondo State, considering the growing cases of banditry, kidnapping and attacks on rural communities.”

The statement added that the impact of insecurity on vulnerable groups, including farmers, traditional rulers, women and children, had been severe, with several communities reportedly affected.

“These realities reinforce Igboho’s long-standing call since 2020 for localised security measures and stronger regional protection strategies.

“Labelling our agitation and efforts as ‘amala politics’ undermines the urgency of the security crisis and the legitimacy of grassroots agitation,” the statement concluded

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Aisha, Deji, Atiku’s aide, Ibe fume over continuous detention of El-Rufai

Published

4 days ago

March 18, 2026

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The continuous detention of the former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, has sparked reactions from politicians and socio-political activists.....TAP TO CONTINUE READING

DAILY POST reports that the former governor has been in the custody of the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission, ICPC, over an ongoing investigation into alleged financial impropriety when he was governor.

El-Rufai had earlier spent two nights in the custody of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, before he was picked up by the Department of State Services and then later handed over to the ICPC.

His continuous detention has sparked outrage among citizens who are calling on the commission to immediately charge the former governor to court.

Popular socio-political activist, Aisha Yesufu, said in a post on X that “holding a citizen indefinitely without trial” is impossible.

According to her, “that is not justice. That is not accountability. That begins to look like persecution.

“Every Nigerian, no matter how powerful or unpopular, has the right to a fair hearing. That right is not a favour from the government. It is a constitutional guarantee. If El-Rufai committed crimes, then prosecute him. Nigerians will support that. But what we must never
Support is a system where the government can detain anyone endlessly, simply because it can.

“Today, it may be El-Rufai. Tomorrow, it could be anyone else who speaks or acts in a way that those in power do not like. A democracy must be better than that.

“So the message is simple: charge him in court or release him. Let justice be done openly, lawfully, and transparently. That is the only way a nation that claims to respect the rule of law should act”.

Similarly, an activist lawyer, Deji Adeyanju, in an interview he posted on X on Wednesday, demanded that the former governor be charged to court immediately, condemning El-Rufai’s incarceration.

“No matter the allegations, I think he should be charged in a court of competent jurisdiction so that he can face the music.

“All these things currently going on don’t look tidy to me”, he said.

On his part, Paul Ibe, a media aide to the former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, lambasted ICPC for not charging the former governor to court.

In a statement on his X handle, Ibe accused the Commission of taking sides with the President Bola Tinubu-led administration.

He wrote, “The matter of the former Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai @elrufai has proven beyond measure that the ‘I’ in ICPC (Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission) @icpcnigeria represents Illegal or Irresponsible.

“There’s nothing Independent about the Commission. They’re no different from all the other institutions of state that are standing on Tinubu’s mandate. The ICPC is nauseatingly pliable and has disgracefully made itself available in coercing members of the opposition into the ruling party”!

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