By now, everyone knows President Bola Tinubu’s approach to capturing power. In his own words, it is: “At all costs, fight for it, grab it, snatch it and run with it”. That was how he put it at a pre-election event in London in December 2022. Many would swear that he deployed this buccaneering strategy to secure the presidency in 2023, arguably helped by INEC’s mysterious “technical glitch”. But right from when he became president in May 2023, Tinubu has set his gaze on his re-election bid in 2027, seemingly determined to employ the same power-grabbing strategy.

One element of the strategy is to disable the main opposition parties. Thus, Tinubu used Nyesom Wike to cripple the PDP and “hold it down” for his re-election bid and used other willing tools to sabotage the ADC. Recently, Tinubu half-jokingly said he would send the Senate President Godswill Akpabio “to scatter the other side”. Well, “scattering” opposition parties is a core element of Tinubu’s election strategy. Another is to corral Nigeria’s 36 state governors to endorse his re-election; indeed, through some extraordinary horse-trading, he co-opted all the opposition governors, bar two or three, into his party. It’s a classic Tinubu-esque act of one-upmanship and political control.

Yet, in a credible election, none of these can guarantee President Tinubu’s re-election next year, as we saw recently in Hungary, where Viktor Orbán, the seemingly invincible autocratic prime minister, lost his re-election bid in a massive assertion of people power. But how far is Tinubu prepared to go to retain power? Would he allow a free and fair poll? Or would he abuse his incumbency and misuse state resources, particularly INEC, the judiciary and the security agencies, to distort the level-playing field and secure an unfair electoral advantage?..TAP TO CONTINUE FULL READING.

Last week, Tinubu told his opponents: “You can’t scare me off!” Fair enough! But is he scared of the electorate? And is he scared of winning a second term fair and square? Tinubu said: “I’ve been through this path before. And if I have to come back over and over again, I’ll do the same thing.” Do exactly what again? Grab, snatch and run with power at all costs? President Tinubu may not be scared of his opponents, he should, in a true democracy, be scared of the voters. Call me cynical, if you like. But given his by-hook-or-by-crook approach to gaining power, it is not cynical to ask if President Tinubu is prepared to win fair and square, an indisputable victory achieved cleanly.

Let me say unequivocally with utmost sincerity. I am utterly agnostic about next year’s presidential election. I have absolutely no sympathy with any political party or presidential candidate. Thus, it doesn’t bother me a jot if President Tinubu is returned to power. Indeed, I would congratulate him in this column, but provided he wins in a free, fair, transparent and genuinely competitive election, not one in which all the cards are stacked against the opposition, not one in which INEC and the judiciary are biased and complicit in denying Nigerians a truly credible election, and not one in which the security agencies do the bidding of the president in a partisan election setting. The judiciary, the electoral body(INEC) and the security agencies have rightly been described as “the triangle of compromise” in Nigerian presidential elections because, under the steering influence of the incumbent, the trio are complicit in foisting badly flawed elections on Nigeria. So, the question bears repeating: Is President Tinubu willing to win re-election fair and square?

Sadly, the omens are bad. As things are, Nigeria is heading to next year’s presidential election as an electoral autocracy, not a genuine democracy. An electoral autocracy is a system under which multiparty elections take place in theory, but, in practice, the incumbent uses its power to constrain active opposition participation and deploys supposedly independent state agencies to its advantage. Electoral autocracy is antithetical to liberal democracy, characterised by, among others, competitive, free, and fair elections. Unfortunately, Nigeria’s presidential election next year will almost certainly not be competitive, free and fair. And, in those circumstances, won’t be credible and legitimate!

As I wrote last week, the PDP, under Wike’s iron grip, will not present a presidential candidate for next year’s poll, thanks to the decisions of the judiciary and INEC, which both appear to be acting out a script written by Wike, who wants to “hold PDP down” for Tinubu. The ADC also looks very unlikely to field a credible presidential candidate, again thanks to the decisions of the judiciary and INEC. Last week, President Tinubu welcomed the decisions of the courts and told the opposition to obey them.

“We cannot submit to disobedience of a lawful order of the court,” he said, adding: “We must embrace the judiciary, whether it favours us or not.” Of course, that was self-serving. What if the courts are doing the bidding of the incumbent or the ruling party? What if the courts are being used, as the Nigerian Bar Association put it in a recent statement, to “secure undemocratic political advantage”? Elections should be a verdict on the performance of the incumbent and, thus, should reflect the popular will of the people. But that won’t happen if the people’s will is thwarted by the judiciary, the electoral body and others acting at the behest of, or in sympathy with, the incumbent.

Last week, President Tinubu said that in taking over from President Muhammadu Buhari, he actually took over from himself. Hear him: “The late Buhari was me. He was my partner. And if I took over from him, is that not from me?” In other words, Tinubu admitted that his government is a continuation of the Buhari administration. Indeed, he was right, both administrations being APC-led, and both having emerged through a grubby “you-scratch-my-back-and-I’ll-scratch-yours” Faustian bargain. But while Buhari led a calamitous eight-year presidency, Tinubu has made things – poverty, inequality, insecurity, misery, etc – far worse since 2023. In a genuine democracy, the question Tinubu will face in next year’s presidential election is: are Nigerians better off under APC’s administrations than they were before APC came to power in 2015? There’s no civilised country where a party will go to the electorate after 12 years of catastrophic governance record and be confident of winning.

However, the assumption is that Nigerians don’t vote based on the performance of the incumbent, however appalling; rather, they vote based on ethnicity, religion and, thanks to poverty, how they are told to vote by those from whose tables they eat crumbs. Yet, while the assumption generally holds, it is not always true. For instance, the 2023 presidential election, which Tinubu won narrowly with just 36.6 per cent of the popular vote, showed that Nigerians were willing to vote out a ruling party. Indeed, they did in 2015 when they actually voted out an incumbent president. The outcomes of the 2023 and 2015 presidential elections are evidence that if elections were genuinely competitive, free and fair, incumbency would lose its outsized role in Nigeria’s presidential elections.

So, back to the recurring question: is President Tinubu willing to secure re-election fair and square? Well, truth be told, he can’t win re-election on the record of his party since 2015 or his own since 2023, hence he’s outsourcing his re-election bid to state governors. Yet, although 35 state governors, except Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state, have endorsed Tinubu’s re-election bid, power belongs to the people, not state governors. Provided the presidential election is free, fair, transparent and competitive, provided INEC, the judiciary and the security apparatus are not compromised, the popular will of the people will prevail. If that means President Tinubu is re-elected, so be it, but he must win fair and square. Would he? Well, I’m not holding my breath!

Former presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has stated that the visit to Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed, was to solicit his support and coopertion in the quest to unite Nigeria.

Naija News reports that Peter Obi, a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), made this known during his visit to Governor Mohammed at the Presidential Lounge of the Government House, Bauchi, on Thursday.

Peter Obi was accompanied by some Igbo elders, ADC senators from the South-East, and his political associates to the meeting with the governor...TAP TO CONTINUE FULL READING.

Speaking at the meeting, Peter Obi expressed displeasure over the state of the country and called for unity and national renewal in Nigeria.

He said, “I am here to solicit the support and cooperation of his excellency and the stakeholders of Bauchi in our quest to unite this country.”

“We want to have a united country to build a future for our children. The country cannot continue the way it is today, we are headed in the wrong direction and we need to reverse that for everybody and that is why we are here to seek his support in building a new Nigeria, that’s for the benefit for all.

“We are building that Nigeria the way it used to be where child of nobody will learn to be somebody without knowing anybody thank you.”

The Supreme Court, yesterday, reserved judgment in the appeals and cross-appeals arising from the leadership crises in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and African Democratic Congress, ADC, after hearing all parties.

The apex court did not fix any date for its rulings, a decision that has varying implications for the feuding camps in both parties.

In the PDP, the case has already reshaped the party’s leadership, with earlier court decisions nullifying its Ibadan convention that produced Kabiru Turaki as national chairman and upholding the suspension of key officials...TAP TO CONTINUE FULL READING.

This means that the PDP national executive, backed by the Federal Capital Territorry, FCT, Minister, Mr Nyesom Wike, that is recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, will remain in control, pending the verdict.

However, the ADC appears worse off as none of its three factions, led by Senator David Mark, Nafiu Bala Gombe and Ogga Temitope, is recognised by the electoral commission.

All the registered political parties have up till May 10 to submit their membership registers to INEC or they would not be eligible to sponsor candidates for the 2027 general polls.

This means if the Supreme Court did not deliver its verdict within 18 days, the ADC will not be on the ballot.

We expect justice from Judiciary — Turaki-led PDP

After proceedings at the apex court, where the appeals challenging judgments delivered by Justices Omotosho and Lifu of the Federal High Court, Abuja Division, and affirmed by the Court of Appeal, the Turaki-led PDP faction, in a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Ini Ememobong, said it expected justice from the court.

The Court of Appeal had upheld the earlier rulings of the Federal High Court, which nullified the PDP’s convention held in Ibadan and sustained the suspension of several party officers, including Samuel Anyanwu and A.K. Ajibade, SAN.

Dissatisfied with the rulings, the Wike-backed PDP approached the Supreme Court, asking it to declare that both the trial court and the appellate court lacked jurisdiction to entertain the matter, insisting it arose from the internal affairs of the party.

Also dissatisfied, the respondents, led by Anyanwu, filed a cross-appeal, urging the apex court to set aside the aspect of the judgment that upheld the suspension of Ajibade, Anyanwu and others.

“All parties adopted their respective processes,” Ememobong said, adding that after hearing arguments, the court reserved judgment to a date to be communicated to counsel.

“We charge all true and uncompromised PDP members to keep their faith alive,” he said.

He added that the party remained hopeful that the apex court would deliver judgments that would preserve multi-party democracy and halt the emergence of a one-party state.

“The Supreme Court has, at several times in the history of our non-linear democratic experience, remained the last hope of Nigeria and Nigerians, even in the face of immense pressure and unimaginable risk,” Ememobong said.

We’re optimistic of victory — Bolaji Abdullahi

In a telephone chat with Vanguard after a five-member panel of the apex court, headed by Justice Mohammed Garba, reserved the ADC matter for judgment after hearing from all parties, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, National Publicity Secretary of the Mark-led faction said they were optimistic of victory.

“We are optimistic with the fact that the things came up quickly and the Supreme Court is mindful of the exigency of the moment. We are optimistic that their ruling will be in record time and quite optimistic of the ruling going in our favour,” he said.

The appeal, marked SC/CV/180/2026, was filed by Senator David Mark.

The appellant, who leads a faction backed by frontline opposition figures, seeks to set aside a March 12 Court of Appeal judgment, which he said was against the interest of justice.

He argued that the appellate court exceeded its jurisdiction by ordering maintenance of the status quo ante bellum in a suit filed by aggrieved party members led by Nafiu-Bala Gombe.

Mark contended that the dispute involved a political party’s domestic affairs, in which courts lacked jurisdiction to intervene.

Beside Gombe, other respondents in the appeal include the ADC, the National, Rauf Aregbesola, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and the immediate past national chairman of the party, Chief Ralph Nwosu.

Mark sought, among other reliefs, an order restraining INEC from recognizing anyone other than him and the current national officers, pending determination of the appeal.

He also requested orders barring INEC from altering the party’s leadership structure as currently constituted and staying proceedings in Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/1819/2025 before Justice Emeka Nwite at the Federal High Court, Abuja, until the appeal is heard.

While adopting their brief of argument, Mark’s legal team, led by Mr. Jubril Okutepa, SAN, insisted the dispute was a non-justiciable internal party matter, as previously held by the Supreme Court.

Although INEC did not file any process to either support or counter the appeal, all the other respondents, however, urged the apex court to dismiss it for want of merit.

They maintained that the trial court was properly seized of facts of the case that was still pending before it.

INEC had removed Mark and Aregbesola from its portal and website as ADC National Chairman and Secretary, respectively, on April 1, citing the Court of Appeal’s judgment.

The electoral body said it would, in line with the order for maintenance of the status quo ante bellum, not recognise any of the warring factions until the legal dispute was determined.

However, despite INEC’s action which the Mark-led faction has asked the Supreme Court to nullify, ADC vowed to proceed with its scheduled national convention.

Justice Nwite of the Federal High Court had on April 14, adjourned sine die (indefinitely), hearing of the substantive case that Gombe filed to sack the Senator Mark-led leadership of the ADC.

Justice Nwite said he could not proceed with the matter, in view of the related issue before the Supreme Court.

He ruled that proceeding would amount to “judicial rascality” while the related appeal pends before the Supreme Court.